Air freight rates remain firm in September – with renewed surge in jet fuel yet to feed through

Global air freight rates maintained a firm tone through September – with continuing concerns over conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, higher oil prices and rising interest rates continuing to weigh on markets.

After a flattish month in August, the global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) calculated by TAC Data edged up again by a further +2.4% over four weeks to September 28, leaving it ahead by +21.7% year-on-year.

But pressures on rates were clearly rising, with a further +5.0% surge in the week to October 5 – as the market entered the Golden Week holiday period in China – pushing the year-on-year gain up to +25.5%.

Meanwhile, there were some ongoing shifts in volumes and rates between different lanes – following a significant drop in e-commerce into Europe since the end of the old de minimis exemption for small parcels entering the EU, and introduction of a new interim flat-rate customs duty.

Overall rates remained strong, but had not risen yet anything like so much as jet fuel prices – which surged again following further disruption to oil markets due to events in both the Middle East and Russia / Ukraine.

According to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, based on Platts data, by October 2 average jet fuel prices were up by more than double the level of 12 months earlier at +108% YoY.

As noted previously, jet fuel is far from the only input into air cargo costs. But it is usually the biggest single input, contributing typically 25% to one-third of total costs depending on other factors like the fuel-efficiency of planes deployed. So jet fuel is clearly important.

As also noted previously, after being caught by surprise at the onset of the Iran conflict at the end of February, many carriers had since taken whatever steps they could to prepare for further shocks by securing supplies further forward.

However, there is a limit to how far forward this is possible. And by late September, sources were saying it could only be another week or so before there might be bigger impacts on rates – as well as types of aircraft used, with more fuel-efficient two-engine planes preferred over less-efficient four-engine planes.

BAI Spot rates also remained firm through September, though did not move up a great deal over the month out of Hong Kong, Shanghai or Korea.

However, BAI Spot rates were significantly up out of India, which was also impacted more rapidly earlier in the year by disruption in the Middle East – and by early October remained a long way higher at close to +70% YoY to the US and well over +80% YoY to Europe.

The full index of outbound routes from Hong Kong (BAI30) – reflecting the whole spectrum of spot and forward contract business through the world’s biggest airport by cargo volume – gained +6.6% over the four weeks to October 5, leaving it at +22.3% YoY.

Outbound Shanghai (BAI80) – second only to HK by volume – edged up +1.0% MoM to the same date, leaving it at +18.3% YoY.

Out of Europe, rates were generally firmer – with the index of outbound routes from Frankfurt (BAI20) gaining +8.7% MoM to leave it up some +46.0% YoY. As well as on Transatlantic routes, rates from Europe to China  were rising – reflecting perhaps the cuts in capacity driven from the opposite direction by the end of de minimis.

Outbound London Heathrow (BAI40) maintained its recent volatile pattern, gaining +15.0% MoM to leave it more narrowly ahead at +13.8% YoY.

Out of the Americas, rate patterns were also pretty firm – with the index of outbound routes from Chicago (BAI50) gaining +28.2% MoM. That left it up by a whopping +77.2% YoY – though compared with levels that were pretty depressed a year ago when standoffs over tariffs and trade terms were hitting volumes.

Meanwhile, underlying the numbers were also some significant shifts in activity between different lanes.

This came out pretty clearly at the annual EU Cross-Border E-Commerce Forum held again last month in Liege, which has become a highly significant European airport by focusing primarily on cargo – with volumes only exceeded narrowly by Frankfurt, London, Paris and Amsterdam.

Speakers in Liege highlighted the significant drop in e-commerce volumes into the EU there had been since the end to the old de minimis regime. Following the introduction of a new interim flat-rate duty of €3 per item at the start of July demand had certainly been hit, various speakers said.

Ryan Keyrouse of Rotate estimated that e-commerce volumes into the EU had plummeted by about -24% – with the market responding by dropping something like 5,000 dedicated freighter flights from Asia-Europe lanes. (This had not impacted all airports evenly, he added, with overall volumes into Liege holding up better than most other airports in Europe).

Other speakers put the drop in e-commerce volumes higher, with Maarten Wormer of Aevean putting the fall on China-Europe lanes at more like -29% – but also highlighted some important nuances in the figures.

Kristian Vanderwaeren, head of SPF Finances (Customs & Excise in Belgium), said that so-called H7 declarations for low-value items – previously covered by the de minimis exemption – fell some -53% between July 2025 and July 2026. On the other hand, he said H1 declarations (for goods declared) had more than doubled over the same period – up +102%.

As other speakers pointed out, this suggests that although trade in cheap items may have become uneconomic under the new flat-rate fee, the market had already responded rapidly with a considerable amount of bundling or aggregating of smaller items into bigger packages. As Vanderwaeren pointed out, this had also significantly boosted revenues from customs duties into the EU.

In a wide-ranging set of panel discussions, a group of leading freight forwarders also cited other current issues for airports around the world.

For instance, Asok Kumar of Morrison Express highlighted the issue of security – noting that some semiconductor chips had now become more valuable than gold, and that airports such as Taipei handling large volumes were not really set up yet for the escalating scale of trade in them.

Henk Venema of DHL also highlighted the need for airports to invest more in ground handling capabilities – such as Bangkok, which he said needed to develop much more to accommodate rapid growth.

Given the backdrop of macroeconomic issues – from oil and other commodities to levels of government debt and rising interest rates in the developed world – speakers in Liege were generally cautious about the outlook for rates into the coming peak season.

Nevertheless, with jet fuel prices higher again, it seemed more likely than not that this would put a hard floor under air freight rates – and that rates would indeed continue to push higher as peak season approaches.